John Dvorak and I are not saying that Web 2.0 technology is useless. Hell, Web 2.0 is revolutionary and exciting. The point is, so was Web 1.0. What we are saying is that thousands of companies are getting much more investment capital than they’re worth. We’re saying that for every YouTube, there are dozens of FooTubes getting millions of bucks. We’re saying that once those companies go bankrupt, we’re all in a bit of trouble.
When I argue that there will be a Web 2.0 collapse, people respond “no there won’t” or “does it matter?”. So to prove my point, I will quote some of the counterarguments I have seen and modify them ever so slightly to show that they could have been used ten years ago. You know, right before the 1.0 bubble burst.
Without further ado,
Web 2.0 Mad Libs
Changed words, if any, are highlighted in bold.
Original post: John Dvorak isn’t just cranky, he’s cranky and wrong by Marshall Kirkpatrick
POINT: “Ubiquitous broadband and the clear utility of the internet is changing the world and all our lives. ”
WEB 1.0 COUNTERPOINT: “Ubiquitous dialup and the clear utility of the internet is changing the world and all our lives. ”
POINT: “Millions of people are using MySpace and YouTube and they are never going back.”
WEB 1.0 COUNTERPOINT: “Millions of people are using Geocities and Usenet and they are never going back.”
POINT: “Finally, I think they are freaked out at their oncoming loss of status when the media gates are thrown open, the youngsters freak out over incomprehensible rock and roll and these oldsters are plagued in their sleep.”
WEB 1.0 COUNTERPOINT: “ZOMG, my mom made me close my AOL account. That old hag doesn’t get the Internet! HOW AM I GONNA SYBER W/ MY GF??!! LOLZ!”
POINT: “Small companies are seeing their technology get acquired or licenced and leveraged by large brands left and right.”
WEB 1.0 COUNTERPOINT: “Small companies are seeing their technology get acquired or licenced and leveraged by large brands left and right.”
POINT: “This is like the invention of the printing press or the television.”
WEB 1.0 COUNTERPOINT: “This is like the invention of the printing press or the television. ”
I rest my case.
4 Comments
Point: Web2.0 logos are pretty
Web1.0 counterpoint: DUDE, LETS PUT A FLAMING SKULL ON THE HOMEPAGE!!!!
imho comparing 1.0 with 2.0 is like comparing David Beckham with Pele. Or Joe DiMaggio with Babe Ruth.
I’m confused… is Web 1.0 Babe Ruth and 2.0 DiMaggio or vice versa? *brain explodes*
Although the similarities you paint are real, but I think the fall out of the “burst” will be minimal to society at large.
Yes, people working the failing companies will be affected directly when those companies go down the toilet. However the major global economic disaster that followed Bubble 1.0 will IMO not reoccur, instead I think most of the Bubble 2.0 technologies and companies will follow the “long tail”.